Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?

Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Piauí Governor Election Winner | Oscarpredictions2026

Name: Piauí Governor Election Winner
Start: 2026-08-17T09:35:13.000Z
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	99%	1%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	99%	1%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Rafael Fonteles	99%
Placeholder 1	50%
Placeholder 2	50%
Placeholder 3	50%
Placeholder 4	50%
Placeholder 5	50%
Placeholder 6	50%
Placeholder 7	50%
Placeholder 8	50%
Placeholder 9	50%
Placeholder 10	50%
Placeholder 11	50%
Placeholder 12	50%
Placeholder 13	50%
Placeholder 14	50%
Other	50%
Dra. Lúcia Santos	0%
Elizeu Aguiar	0%
Geraldo Carvalho	0%
Gustavo Feijó	0%
Joel Rodrigues	0%
Lourdes Melo	0%
Professor Gisvaldo	0%
Professor Jurity	0%
Ravenna da Inclusão	0%
Santiago Belizário	0%

Market context

Market consensus: 99% chance of piauí governor election winner. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. The Piauí gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes …

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Piauí Governor Election Winner. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?: Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
How accurate are award predictions?: Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?: UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?: Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Piauí Governor Election Winner on Oscar Predictions 2026

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Piauí Governor Election Winner

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Piauí Governor Election Winner on Oscar Predictions 2026

Related live markets

Louisville vs. Ole Miss

Fed Decision in September?

2026 Men’s US Open Winner (Tennis)

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Washington State vs. Washington

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame