Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

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Market context

Ships are barely crossing the Strait of Hormuz today, with commercial traffic collapsing from roughly 150 daily vessels before the Iran war to single digits since early March 2026, while oil tanker flows remain near a standstill[1][7]. Iran has reportedly approved passage for GCC, European, and foreign ships through a limited controlled route, charging a fee of around $2 million per vessel, yet most detected transits involve Iran-linked or high-risk ships using spoofed signals to evade targeting[1]. This severe disruption frames the current 15% YES probability, as historical precedents show that chokepoints like Hormuz rarely recover to normalcy without explicit geopolitical de-escalation, mirroring how Eurovision’s 50/50 jury-televote split or the Oscars’ preferential ballot for Best Picture require clear, structured consensus to shift outcomes decisively.

Traders should monitor Iran’s official announcements regarding fee adjustments or route expansions, alongside scheduled IMF PortWatch data revisions that occur weekly, as these dependencies directly determine whether transit calls reach the listed threshold[4][8]. Recent reports confirm ongoing GPS jamming and AIS spoofing in the region, complicating accurate vessel counts and suggesting that any sudden rise in reported arrivals may reflect technical artefacts rather than genuine traffic recovery[6]. A trader must watch for the next monthly update from IMF PortWatch, which is due soon, as this will provide the first definitive evidence of whether commercial flows are stabilising or continuing their decline[10]. Without such a catalyst, the market’s low probability remains justified by the persistent standstill in oil tanker movements and the collapse in general commercial traffic.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.