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MLB: Batting Average Leader

How the prediction markets are pricing "MLB: Batting Average Leader" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

Luis Arraez 23% Yordan Alvarez 7% Otto Lopez 6% Yandy Díaz 5% Volume: $1.4M Liquidity: $40K Closes: 28 Sept 2026
Open live market →
MLB: Batting Average Leader

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 23% 77% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 23% 77% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Luis Arraez23%
Yordan Alvarez7%
Otto Lopez6%
Yandy Díaz5%
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.4%
Aaron Judge2%
George Springer1%
Bobby Witt Jr.1%
Freddie Freeman1%
Alec Burleson1%
Andy Pages1%
CJ Abrams1%
Jordan Walker1%
Sal Stewart1%
Bo Bichette0%
Jacob Wilson0%
Jeremy Peña0%
Trea Turner0%
Nico Hoerner0%
Josh Naylor0%
Geraldo Perdomo0%
Wilyer Abreu0%
Mauricio Dubón0%
Ben Rice0%
Shea Langeliers0%
Drake Baldwin0%
Brandon Nimmo0%
Oneil Cruz0%
Corbin Carroll0%
Giancarlo Stanton0%
Riley Greene0%
Player B0%
Player C0%
Player D0%
Player E0%
Player F0%
Player G0%
Player H0%
Player I0%
Player J0%
Player K0%
Player L0%
Player M0%
Player N0%
Player O0%
Player P0%
Player Q0%
Player R0%
Player S0%
Player T0%
Player U0%
Player V0%
Player W0%
Player X0%
Player Y0%
Player Z0%
Player AA0%
Player AB0%
Player AC0%
Player AD0%
Player AE0%
Player AF0%
Player AG0%
Player AH0%
Player AI0%
Player AJ0%
Player AK0%
Player AL0%
Player AM0%
Player AN0%
Other0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 23% probability to mlb: batting average leader. This market will resolve according to the player who records the highest batting average among qualified players during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In the event of a tie, this mark…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for MLB: Batting Average Leader. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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