Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

President Trump has publicly declared that a ceasefire agreement with Iran is now complete, effectively ending hostilities on all fronts including Lebanon, and authorising the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for global shipping. This announcement, validated by Iran’s Deputy Minister and mediated by Pakistan’s Prime Minister, marks a definitive shift from the prior conflict that had restricted navigation since February 28.

Historical precedents such as the Twelve-Day War ceasefire between Iran and Israel in June 2025, which held until February 2026 before resuming, illustrate how fragile such agreements can be despite initial optimism. The current 3% crowd-implied probability for a “no ceasefire” outcome reflects market scepticism that the deal will endure, mirroring how earlier ceasefires expired without extension or were undermined by renewed violence, as seen when bombing resumed after the Twelve-Day War.

Traders should monitor official statements from the White House regarding the deal’s implementation, scheduled signing events in Switzerland, and any diplomatic proposals from Tehran that Trump might reject. Recent reports from PBS News indicate Trump has already described the ceasefire as being on “life support” after rejecting Tehran’s latest proposal, suggesting the agreement remains vulnerable to breakdown if stalled diplomacy or renewed hostilities escalate further.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.