Bitcoin price on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the one-minute Binance candle for BTC/USDT at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026. This market resolves to "No" if the price does not meet the specified threshold, with the current crowd-implied probability of a "Yes" outcome sitting at zero per cent.

Historical precedents in price-based prediction markets often mirror voting systems that split authority between experts and the public, such as Eurovision’s 50/50 jury and televote split or the Oscars’ preferential ballot for Best Picture. In crypto markets, similar dynamics emerge where technical analysts and on-chain data often diverge from retail sentiment, leading to sharp corrections when consensus breaks. Recent data shows Bitcoin peaked at $126,198.07 in October 2025 but has since retraced, with the price on 1 June 2026 recorded at $72,145.11, down $1,675.69 from the prior day[1]. By 25 June 2026, Binance’s own prediction model suggests a price near $60,934.30, indicating continued downward pressure[2].

Traders should monitor upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, potential regulatory announcements from the US Securities and Exchange Commission, and major institutional adoption news, all of which can trigger volatility. A recent Fortune report highlights that Bitcoin’s price trajectory remains sensitive to macroeconomic shifts and liquidity conditions, with technical indicators forecasting a potential rise to $90,967.84 over the next five years if current trends reverse[1]. The settlement window ends on 25 June 2026 at 16:00 UTC, and any price falling between two brackets resolves to the higher range.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.