Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas is still publicly tying any weapons handover to prior Israeli withdrawals and wider guarantees, which is the key real-world constraint behind this market. Reuters reported on 2 April that Hamas told mediators it would not even discuss disarmament unless Israel fully withdrew from Gaza, while later reporting and other outlets said the group was insisting on phase-one commitments, international protection, and political guarantees before moving on to weapons talks.[1][2][3]

That is why the current 0% crowd-implied probability reads like a public-versus-internal split rather than a simple yes/no on negotiations: the public stance has been rigid, but several reports suggest Hamas has at least entertained narrower ideas such as phased or partial decommissioning under a wider peace framework.[3][7][8] Comparable conflicts over signalling versus final compliance matter here, because a market like this resolves only on an official announcement from Hamas leadership, not on mediators’ optimism, leaked draft language, or conditional talk. In that sense, the closest analogue is not a vote count but a two-stage approval process: pressure can build, yet the payoff only comes if the recognised leadership crosses the line in a formal statement.

Traders should watch for three catalysts: any renewed U.S.-backed ceasefire package, whether Israeli withdrawal timetables are specified, and whether mediators from Qatar, Egypt, or Turkey say Hamas has accepted the text rather than merely kept talks alive. AP reported in late April that serious discussions on a phased decommissioning proposal were under way, with the process envisioned to start with the “most dangerous weapons” and proceed in stages, which matters because even a partial, official commitment would qualify for this market.[7] By contrast, Reuters’ April reporting that Hamas would not begin disarmament talks without full withdrawal shows the default position remains defensive and conditional.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.