Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 99% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 99% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 99% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-6.5) vs AG.AL International (+6.5) | 99% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 99% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 99% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Match Winner | 86% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-5.5) vs AG.AL International (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-2.5) vs AG.AL International (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-4.5) vs AG.AL International (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: AG.AL International (-2.5) vs MIBR LOS (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-3.5) vs AG.AL International (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map Handicap: AG.AL (-1.5) vs MIBR LOS (+1.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: MIBR LOS (-7.5) vs AG.AL International (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR LOS (-1.5) vs AG.AL International (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of valorant: mibr los vs ag.al international (bo3) - esports world cup group d. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the Valorant Decider match between MIBR LOS and AG.AL International in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 7 at 7:00AM ET. This marke…
Methodology
Entertainment-specific comparison page for Valorant: MIBR LOS vs AG.AL International (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group D. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.
Resolution & payout
Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- How accurate are award predictions?
- Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
- What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
- Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
- How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
- UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
- Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
- Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
- Is entertainment trading worth the effort?
- Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.
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