Which entertainment markets are available?

Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

How are reality-TV outcomes verified?

UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs TheMongolz (B… | Oscarpredictions2026

Name: Counter-Strike: Alliance vs TheMongolz (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs
Start: 2026-10-12T16:15:35.000Z
End: 2026-10-19T15:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	51%	49%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	51%	49%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Alliance (+3.5)	51%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Alliance (+3.5)	51%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	48%
O/U 2.5 Games	45%
Map 1 Winner	43%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	39%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: TheMongolz (-3.5) vs Alliance (+3.5)	39%
Match Winner	38%
Map 2 Winner	37%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5	37%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Alliance (+1.5)	35%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 51% probability to counter-strike: alliance vs themongolz (bo3) - 1win private club #2 playoffs. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper Bracket Quarterfinal 2 match between Alliance and TheMongolz in the 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 19, 2026 at 8:00 AM ET…

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Alliance vs TheMongolz (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?: Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
When do award markets resolve?: After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
How accurate are award predictions?: Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?: Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?: UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.

Alex ChenPrediction Market Analystand

Jordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

Trade Counter-Strike: Alliance vs TheMongolz (BO3) - 1win … on Oscar Predictions 2026

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Counter-Strike: Alliance vs TheMongolz (BO3) - 1win Private Club #2 Playoffs

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Counter-Strike: Alliance vs TheMongolz (BO3) - 1win … on Oscar Predictions 2026

Related live markets

Cowboys vs. Packers

Steelers vs. Buccaneers

Chargers vs. Chiefs

Fed Decision in October?

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians

Notre Dame vs. BYU