Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump remains in the White House with a 10% crowd-implied probability that he will resign, be removed, or otherwise cease to be President before the end of 2026. This market resolves to "Yes" only if permanent removal occurs, excluding temporary invocations of the 25th Amendment, and an announcement of resignation or removal before the settlement date triggers immediate resolution regardless of when the effect takes place.

Historically, presidential removal in the United States has been exceptionally rare, with only two instances of impeachment leading to Senate votes: Andrew Johnson in 1868 and Bill Clinton in 1999, both resulting in no removal. The Constitution mandates impeachment for "Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors" [4], yet the Supreme Court recently expanded Trump’s authority to fire heads of independent agencies, overturning a 1935 precedent that limited such power [1][3]. This judicial shift strengthens executive control over the bureaucracy, making institutional removal via agency heads less likely and reinforcing the President’s position against internal bureaucratic challenges.

Traders should monitor the Supreme Court’s ongoing rulings on executive power, the schedule for potential impeachment inquiries by Congress, and any public statements from Trump regarding his tenure. Recent news from The Washington Post highlights the Court’s expansion of Trump’s firing power over federal bureaucracy, which may reduce the likelihood of removal through administrative channels [6]. Additionally, watch for announcements from key political figures or shifts in public sentiment that could signal growing pressure for resignation, as these are the primary catalysts for a "Yes" outcome in this market.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for Trump out as President before 2027?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?

After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.

How accurate are award predictions?

Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.

What was the top Oscar 2025 market?

Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.

Who can trade Eurovision markets?

Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.

Is entertainment trading worth the effort?

Niche, but lucrative for experts. Award markets have fewer informed traders than political markets; combining industry expertise (film, music) with active research often surfaces mispricings. Volume cap: large bets move the market.