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What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?

How the prediction markets are pricing "What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

↑ 76,000 85% ↓ 74,000 71% ↑ 78,000 47% ↓ 72,000 35% Volume: $131K Liquidity: $615K Closes: 16 Nov 2026
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What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 85% 15% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 85% 15% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
↑ 76,00085%
↓ 74,00071%
↑ 78,00047%
↓ 72,00035%
↑ 80,00022%
↓ 70,00016%
↑ 82,0007%
↓ 68,0007%
↑ 84,0004%
↓ 66,0003%
↑ 86,0002%
↓ 64,0002%
↑ 88,0001%
↓ 62,0001%
↓ 60,0001%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, what price will bitcoin hit november 9-15? stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for What price will Bitcoin hit November 9-15?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Which entertainment markets are available?
Oscars / Academy Awards (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor/Actress), Eurovision Song Contest, Emmy Awards, Grammy Awards, Golden Globes, plus reality-TV outcomes (Bachelor, Survivor). Volume usually sits in the five- to six-figure range per market.
How accurate are award predictions?
Variable. Industry-predictable awards (Oscar Best Picture) have high market accuracy (Brier ~0.15). Reality-TV outcomes with small markets carry more noise. Eurovision is notorious for market upsets due to bloc voting.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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