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What price will Bitcoin hit June 29-July 5?

How the prediction markets are pricing "What price will Bitcoin hit June 29-July 5?" — Polymarket mid plus comparison with Betfair and Manifold.

↓ 58,000 56% ↑ 62,000 47% ↓ 56,000 23% ↑ 64,000 18% Volume: $140K Liquidity: $303K Closes: 6 Jul 2026
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What price will Bitcoin hit June 29-July 5?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Oscar Predictions 2026) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 56% 44% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 56% 44% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
↓ 58,00056%
↑ 62,00047%
↓ 56,00023%
↑ 64,00018%
↓ 54,0007%
↑ 66,0007%
↓ 52,0003%
↓ 50,0002%
↑ 68,0002%
↓ 48,0001%
↓ 46,0001%
↑ 72,0001%
↑ 70,0001%
↑ 74,0000%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, what price will bitcoin hit june 29-july 5? stands at 56% likelihood according to current market consensus. What price will Bitcoin hit June 29-July 5?

Methodology

Entertainment-specific comparison page for What price will Bitcoin hit June 29-July 5?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) shows the award probability. For awards markets, Polymarket usually has the deepest liquidity; Betfair runs comparable markets for Oscars/Emmys; Manifold for Eurovision.

Resolution & payout

Entertainment markets settle on official award ceremony or show end. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL to the official award website. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do award markets resolve?
After the official announcement — e.g. Oscars ceremony end for Academy Awards markets, Eurovision final end for ESC markets. UMA Optimistic Oracle typically uses the official award website as the resolution source.
What was the top Oscar 2025 market?
Best Picture, with ~$2.8M volume on Polymarket. "Anora" started as an underdog at ~8% and closed at ~62% before the ceremony — the biggest single Oscar market swing since 2019.
Who can trade Eurovision markets?
Polymarket is globally accessible but geo-blocked in select jurisdictions — traders there use broker frontends with a different geo footprint to reach the order book. Eurovision markets have strong European liquidity; German/Austrian/Swiss flow often drives consensus.
How are reality-TV outcomes verified?
UMA Oracle uses the official show website or producer statement as the resolution source. Very narrowly defined markets (e.g. "Will X be voted off the island?") rely on the official show notes.
Are there politics-entertainment crossover markets?
Yes — e.g. "Will X be parodied on SNL?", "Who will host the next Oscars?". These have thinner liquidity but offer alpha for traders who read pop-culture and political worlds together.
Alex ChenAlex ChenPrediction Market AnalystandJordan LeeJordan LeeSports Prediction Reporter

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