Will Crude Oil (CL) hit 2026 by end of June?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the official CME settlement price for the front-month Crude Oil (CL) futures contract on any trading day up to the final day of June 2026. If that price equals or exceeds the listed threshold, the market resolves to "Yes". Current crowd-implied probability sits at 100% "Yes", suggesting near-certainty among participants that the price will breach the level before the settlement window closes on 30 June 2026.

Historically, such extreme probabilities in commodities markets often mirror voting splits seen in events like Eurovision, where jury and public votes are weighted equally, or the Oscars, which use preferential ballots for Best Picture. In oil markets, a 100% "Yes" implies a jury-like consensus among professional traders, yet it may overlook public sentiment shifts driven by geopolitical noise. Recent precedent shows that even with strong supply guarantees, sudden disruptions—such as Strait of Hormuz closures—can rapidly alter price trajectories, making absolute certainty risky despite current consensus.

Traders should monitor the EIA weekly inventory report, Strait of Hormuz transit data, and the dollar index (DXY) movements, all of which directly influence crude prices. On Wednesday, crude oil posted a 3.5-month low as the dollar hit a 13-month high, while reopened Hormuz supply eased global concerns and undercut prices [1]. The International Maritime Organization confirmed guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf, boosting confidence and increasing crude supplies [1]. Any reversal in these trends could challenge the 100% probability, especially if geopolitical tensions resurface or inventory data surprises.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.