In this guide
What Is a Prediction Market?
Prediction markets are trading venues where people buy and sell contracts tied to whether specific events will unfold. The contract's market price embodies the aggregate view of all participants about the likelihood of that event materialising. PolyGram operates as a UK-based prediction market platform offering exposure to occurrences across the globe.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
At their core, prediction market contracts pose a straightforward question: will Event X occur before Date Y? Consider this scenario: "Will the Conservative Party secure victory in the next UK general election?" Two distinct contracts become available:
- YES: Delivers $1.00 if the Conservative Party triumphs
- NO: Delivers $1.00 if the Conservative Party does not triumph
Should the YES contract trade at $0.65, this signals the marketplace perceives a 65% chance of Conservative victory. You might purchase YES if you believe victory is more probable, or NO if you reckon it's less probable. Correct predictions generate gains; incorrect ones result in losses on your investment.
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Betting
- Absence of overround: Traditional bookmakers embed a profit margin — prediction markets eliminate this. YES and NO prices combine to approximately $1.00
- Position exit flexibility: You may close or reverse your position at any point prior to the event concluding
- Full visibility: Market participants have unrestricted access to pricing information and order flow details
- Collective intelligence: Prices synthesise insights from vast numbers of market participants — frequently delivering superior accuracy compared to conventional surveys
Types of Prediction Markets
Political Markets
Parliamentary contests, satisfaction indices, legislative developments, ministerial appointments. These categories dominate in terms of both trading volume and participant engagement on major platforms such as Polymarket.
Sports Markets
Game results, championship victors, athlete performance metrics, divisional standings.
Crypto Markets
Digital asset valuations, blockchain improvements, fund authorisations, governmental responses.
World Event Markets
Financial metrics, climate phenomena, technological breakthroughs, cultural honours.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?
The regulatory status of prediction markets within the UK occupies uncertain terrain. The Gambling Commission has neither formally authorised nor formally prohibited them. Operators such as PolyGram function through decentralised ledger infrastructure, positioning themselves distinctly from conventional gaming establishments.
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Empirical evidence repeatedly demonstrates that prediction markets surpass specialist analysts and survey-based forecasting in accuracy. Polymarket's track record encompasses successful predictions across the 2024 US presidential race, numerous elections throughout Europe, and significant cryptocurrency developments—many forecast with considerable lead time.