In this guide
What Is a Prediction Market?
Prediction markets are trading venues where individuals exchange contracts tied to the outcome of forthcoming events. The cost of any given contract mirrors what the broader market believes is the likelihood of that event taking place. PolyGram operates as a UK-based prediction market platform offering exposure to events across the globe.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
At their core, prediction market contracts pose a straightforward question: will Event X occur before Date Y? Consider this example: "Will the Labour Party secure victory in the forthcoming UK general election?" Two contract varieties are offered:
- YES: This contract delivers $1.00 should Labour win
- NO: This contract delivers $1.00 should Labour fail to win
When YES trades at $0.65, the market is pricing in roughly a 65% chance of a Labour victory. You would purchase YES if you believe the odds favour them, or NO if you reckon the opposite. Correct predictions yield gains; incorrect ones result in losses of your initial investment.
Prediction Markets vs Traditional Betting
- No overround: Traditional bookmakers embed a profit margin into their odds — prediction markets sidestep this entirely. YES and NO prices together approximate $1.00
- You can sell before resolution: Close out your position at any time prior to the event concluding
- Transparent: Market participants have full visibility into pricing and order book information
- Crowd wisdom: Thousands of traders contribute their views to the price — frequently delivering superior accuracy relative to surveys and expert opinion
Types of Prediction Markets
Political Markets
Contests for elected office, public confidence measurements, legislative developments, shifts in leadership. These dominate activity and liquidity on major platforms such as Polymarket.
Sports Markets
Game results, championship victors, individual athlete performance metrics, divisional standings.
Crypto Markets
BTC valuation thresholds, blockchain network changes, digital asset fund launches, government regulatory announcements.
World Event Markets
Macroeconomic data releases, climate-related incidents, technological breakthroughs, cultural and media honours.
Are Prediction Markets Legal in the UK?
The legal status of prediction markets within the United Kingdom remains ambiguous. They lack explicit authorisation from the Gambling Commission yet face no formal prohibition either. Services such as PolyGram function through decentralised blockchain settlement mechanisms, distinguishing them structurally from conventional gaming operations.
How Accurate Are Prediction Markets?
Empirical evidence demonstrates that prediction markets regularly surpass professional analysts and conventional polling in forecast accuracy. Polymarket's track record includes successful calls on the 2024 US presidential race, numerous contests across Europe, and significant cryptocurrency developments—many predicted substantially ahead of their actual occurrence.