In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading depth and breadth of available outcomes. Kalshi represents the regulatory gold standard for American participants. Manifold excels as a zero-stakes community forecasting venue. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram emerges as the standout choice.
Prediction markets have surged dramatically throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the sector's primary contenders stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Over $1.5B in yearly transaction volume. Most competitive pricing across political and digital asset categories |
| Markets | Exceeds 1,000 concurrent markets spanning governance, blockchain, athletics, research, and entertainment |
| Fees | Zero platform markup. Typical bid-ask gap ranges from 1 to 3 cents |
| Currency | USDC denominated on Polygon network (blockchain wallet required) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding the United States. Identity verification mandatory |
| Best for | Professional forecasters and those with proprietary insights |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction venue. It welcomes US-based traders who cannot participate on Polymarket and has experienced substantial growth. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available outcomes and regulatory constraints that restrict certain market categories from operating.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of tangible funds. It functions as an excellent sandbox for honing forecasting abilities and engaging with collective intelligence — though it lacks monetary incentives. The ecosystem hosts over 10,000 user-generated prediction scenarios.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of crowd-sourced probability estimates compiled by expert contributors. While no financial stakes are involved, it excels as a venue for establishing predictive credibility and analysing international developments. Academic institutions frequently reference its methodology when studying forecast calibration.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues processing astronomical sums across sports and political wagering annually. Strengths include traditional currency settlement, Financial Conduct Authority oversight, and unmatched sports market depth. Limitations encompass a 2-5% commission structure on net profits, absence of blockchain-based assets, and comparatively sparse political market coverage relative to Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the US seeking maximum trading liquidity and the most comprehensive range of outcomes: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain interactions whilst preserving complete access to Polymarket's underlying order flow. Start trading on PolyGram →