In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of depth and breadth of available contracts. Kalshi stands out as the sole federally-regulated option for American participants. Manifold excels for casual forecasters seeking entertainment value without financial stakes. Across Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram emerges as the optimal choice.
Since 2024, prediction markets have surged dramatically in mainstream adoption. This guide examines how the sector's major platforms stack up heading into 2025.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | $1.5B+ annual volume. Deepest markets on politics, crypto |
| Markets | 1,000+ active. Politics, crypto, sports, science, culture |
| Fees | 0% house edge. Spread typically 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC on Polygon (crypto required) |
| Access | Global (ex US). KYC required |
| Best for | Serious traders with information edge |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi represents the sole CFTC-approved prediction market operating within American jurisdiction. It welcomes US-based traders who face restrictions elsewhere and has experienced substantial expansion. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available contracts relative to Polymarket, alongside regulatory constraints that prevent many categories from launching.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using virtual currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform serves as an excellent venue for honing forecasting skills and participating in collective intelligence exercises — though it lacks profit potential for traders seeking financial returns. The ecosystem encompasses over 10,000 user-generated markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus aggregates quantitative predictions from its network of expert forecasters. Without monetary stakes involved, it remains invaluable for establishing forecasting credentials and addressing complex global questions. The platform carries significant weight in scholarly circles examining forecast quality and reliability.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues processing enormous sums across sporting and electoral contracts annually. Strengths include traditional currency settlement, FCA oversight, and exceptional sports market depth. Drawbacks comprise commission rates between 2-5% on profits, absence of digital asset markets, and comparatively sparse election-related offerings versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants across Europe and internationally seeking maximum market depth and breadth: Polymarket via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines blockchain technicalities whilst preserving complete access to Polymarket's underlying liquidity. Start trading on PolyGram →