In this guide
With the 2028 US presidential contest still more than two years away, prediction markets have already begun establishing prices across the field. Republican succession following Trump's constitutional ineligibility and Democratic primary dynamics are both seeing substantial trading volume. Traders who position themselves early often capture significant value before the candidate roster consolidates.
Republican 2028 Presidential Market
Trump's third-term prohibition leaves the Republican nomination race genuinely competitive:
- J.D. Vance: ~25-30% — Vice-presidential incumbency advantage, Trump-endorsed positioning
- Ron DeSantis: ~15-20% — Gubernatorial track record, recovery from 2024 primary underperformance
- Nikki Haley: ~12-15% — Centrist coalition appeal, international relations experience
- Glenn Youngkin: ~7-10% — Two-term Virginia governor with strong approval ratings, entrepreneurial credentials
- Josh Hawley: ~5-8% — Working-class economic messaging resonance
- Unknown candidate: ~15-20% — Sufficiently fragmented field permits surprise contenders
Democratic 2028 Presidential Market
- Kamala Harris: ~20-25% — Presumptive favourite, party establishment backing
- Pete Buttigieg: ~12-15% — Cabinet-level prominence from Transportation portfolio
- Gavin Newsom: ~10-13% — West Coast governor with rising national prominence
- Josh Shapiro: ~8-12% — Swing-state Pennsylvania executive with broad appeal
- Unknown candidate: ~25-30% — Timeline permits emergence of fresh political figures
2028 General Election Probabilities
- Republican wins presidency 2028: ~48-52% (near-parity given early stage)
- Democrat wins presidency 2028: ~48-52%
Why Trade 2028 Markets Now
Participating in early 2028 markets provides several advantages:
- Greater price volatility reflecting substantial information gaps and elevated uncertainty
- Extended timeframe permitting position accumulation as new developments emerge
- Capacity to establish stakes in candidates before watershed moments reshape their viability
Drawback: nascent markets exhibit heightened sensitivity to surprise announcements and candidate decisions regarding candidacy.
FAQ
- Can a sitting VP (Vance) win the Republican nomination?
- Historical precedent shows vice-presidential nominees possess structural advantages but encounter no guarantees. George H.W. Bush successfully inherited Reagan's coalition in 1988; Al Gore's 2000 campaign faltered despite his incumbency. Prediction markets acknowledge Vance's leading position whilst avoiding overconfidence.
- When do 2028 nomination markets resolve?
- Both Republican and Democratic nomination contracts settle following their respective party conventions — ordinarily scheduled for July and August 2028.
- Are there markets for specific primary states?
- Individual contests including Iowa's caucuses and New Hampshire's primary typically launch betting markets between six and twelve months beforehand — consult PolyGram's political markets offerings for current availability.